Every SuperCoach week comes down to decisions. Who do you start? Who do you trade? Who gets the armband? And the only thing separating a good call from a bad one is the quality of information you're working with.

Projections are supposed to help with that. The problem is most of them aren't very good. At Ballr, we've built our own — and we've been quietly tracking how they perform against SuperCoach's official projections since the season started. Here's what we found.

Ballr projections vs NRL SuperCoach projections: How we measured it

We looked at over 1,300 player scores across the first five rounds of 2026 and compared what Ballr projected against what SuperCoach projected — then checked both against what players actually scored.

Ballr was closer to the real score more often. Every single round.

55% of the time Ballr projections were closer to what the player actually scored.

65% of the time Ballr was more accurate on the big name picks — the players SuperCoach projects to score 75+ points.

Every round, Ballr had a lower average error than SuperCoach across all five rounds tested.

Put simply: If you'd used Ballr projections to set your lineup instead of SuperCoach, you'd have had better information more often than not.

What better projections means for your SuperCoach team

Numbers are only useful if they change what you do. Here's why better projections actually matter in NRL SuperCoach.

Your captain pick

The captain is one of your biggest decisions every week — being worth double. When you're choosing between two premium players, even a small edge in projection accuracy can be the difference between a great score and a frustrating one. This is where Ballr's advantage is biggest. Check the player projections before lockout.

SuperCoach buy, hold sell and trade targets

A good projection tells you whether a player is likely to improve or decline — before the rest of the competition works it out. If Ballr is identifying value that SuperCoach is missing, you're getting into trades earlier and at better prices. Use the Team Builder to test trades against your projected scores.

Sit v Start decisions

Every week you're staring at two players for one spot. A good projection cuts through the noise — instead of going off gut feel or last week's score, you can see which player Ballr expects to score more this week.

Check the player projections page before lockout to make the call with confidence.

How We Build the Projections

We're not just looking at what a player averaged last month. Ballr's projections are built on five seasons of NRL data and factor in things that averages completely ignore.

Who they're playing

Some defences are brutal for certain positions. A forward who averages 60 against soft opposition might be looking at 40 against a stingy middle. We account for this every week.

Who else is playing

If a star halfback gets ruled out, the players around him are affected — more touches, different roles, different scoring opportunities.

Ballr adjusts for this automatically. You don't have to do the mental maths yourself.

The weather

Rain changes the game. It suppresses some positions and can actually help others. If there's a wet forecast on game day, our projections already reflect it.

How long they'll actually play

A 60-point average means nothing if a player is only getting 50 minutes this week. Our experts adjust expected game time for role changes, fitness concerns, and competition for position — so you're projecting the right version of each player.

We predict how a player will score, not just how much. That's the difference.

Round by round: Ballr projections vs NRL SuperCoach

Here's how Ballr compared to SuperCoach in each of the first five rounds. The percentage shows how often Ballr's projection was closer to the actual score.

• Round 1   54.5% of players - Ballr closer
• Round 2   54.8% of players - Ballr closer
• Round 3   55.0% of players - Ballr closer
• Round 4   57.3% of players - Ballr closer
• Round 5   55.1% of players - Ballr closer

Ballr projections: Always improving

We're not going to pretend the projections are perfect — they're not, and no projection ever will be. SuperCoach is unpredictable by nature. That's half the fun.

But every week of data helps our model learn and improve.

Breakout games

If a player suddenly starts playing out of their skin — genuinely going to a different level — our model can be a bit slow to catch up. It's based on history, so genuine step-changes take a round or two to feed through.

Fringe players

For players who are in and out of the side, or who have limited historical data, projections are naturally less reliable.

We flag expected minutes to give you a sense of confidence.

The model updates every week. Every round of results makes it better.

Ready to use Ballr projections? Head to the player statistics page or open the Team Builder — and see the difference before your next lockout.