Round 15 NRL SuperCoach Positional Averages & Matchups

By Alex Christie - @SuperCoachRealm on X

Positional points conceded data is one of the most powerful tools available to SuperCoach players, but it’s also one of the most misunderstood. Raw averages often fail to tell the full story.

Things like goalkicking, HIAs, sin bins, injury-related positional changes, and mid game role changes can all heavily influence where points are scored. This creates a misleading picture of which positions teams are genuinely struggling to defend.

To combat that, every average in this article has been manually tracked and adjusted to provide the most accurate representation possible of where SuperCoach points are being conceded across the field.

This article examines the season to date across every position, while also highlighting the 3-round average (3RA) and 5-round average (5RA) to showcase emerging trends and provide a clearer picture of current defensive form.

FRF has been excluded from this analysis due to the constant rotation of middle forwards and the difficulty in accurately assigning points conceded to individual front row roles.

Every average in this article will be colour-coded:

• Blue – elite
• Green – good
• Yellow – okay
• Orange – not good
• Red – terrible

Please note the first article from me that was posted last week was extremely long, the initial one was always gonna be fully fleshed out to give everyone an idea of where teams were at.

From this point onwards I will be focusing on the matchups and changes week-to-week.

Positional analysis

With Rd 14 now added into the season averages, the biggest shift this week comes from Wests Tigers, who had the clearest overall rise in points conceded.

Their overall average jumped from 62.3 to 65.7, with the movement spread across multiple positions rather than coming from one isolated spike.

The main rises came through LW, RW, RH, LC and HOK, while their right side average also climbed to 70.6, making them 1 of the more notable teams to reassess heading into this week.

The Raiders were another team that became slightly more SuperCoach friendly, with RW, RC and LH all moving upwards, while the Dragons remained the strongest overall matchup on the table and had their RW number climb even higher.

The Titans' RC number also held firm as one of the elite position-specific averages, while their left side improved slightly as well.

At the other end, the Panthers became even tougher to target with them remaining the lowest overall average on the table. Their RC, LS and LH numbers all moved down, which adds to what was already an extremely unattractive matchup profile.

The Dolphins RW number also fell again and remains the lowest individual position on the table, while the Sea Eagles RW cooled off from where it sat last week.

The overall table gives us the broader movement, but the real value comes from breaking it down position by position.

From here, we will go through each individual spot and highlight where the strongest matchup targets are, as well as the areas that look less appealing for Round 15.

Fullback

Targets

The Tigers are the clear standout here. They already sit 3rd for season average at 73.7, but the recent form is the real headline, with a 3RA of 104 and 5RA of 88.8.

The Titans are also a strong target, sitting at 72.3 for the season average with an 88 5RA, while the Rabbitohs are worth noting despite the lower season average, with their 3RA at 92.3 and 5RA at 77.2.

Non-targets

The Raiders are the main caution despite a solid season average of 66.2. Their recent numbers have fallen hard, with a 3RA of 37 and 5RA of 42.6.

The Dolphins, Sharks and Broncos are also not ideal based on current form, with all 3 sitting around the low 50s or below for 3RA/5RA.

Right wing

Targets

The Tigers are the obvious target at RW. They sit 1st for season average at 73.8, with a huge 3RA of 119 and 5RA of 90.6.

The Warriors are another strong option, sitting at 63.6 for the season with a 3RA of 70.3 and 5RA of 73.

This aligns with the inclusion of Alofiana Khan-Pereira who has conceded 72.1 to right wingers this season. Canberra also look playable, with their 3RA rising to 75.3.

Non-targets

The Dolphins are the clearest avoid on the entire table, with a season average of just 36.2 which is the lowest for any position across the league and recent numbers of 25.7 and 25.2.

The Roosters, Broncos, Eels and Titans are also all sitting below 50 for season average, making them difficult matchups to trust.

The Sharks are not as low overall, but the 5RA of 39.2 is worth noting.

Right centre

Targets

Gold Coast remain the elite RC matchup. They sit first by a long way with a season average of 78.8, while their 3RA is 79.7 and 5RA is 85, so the number has held up across both season and recent form.

The Tigers were also a good target at 67.1, with a 3RA of 71.3, however with Taylan May named to play, the average is a bit deceiving.

The average in games where May played at least 70 minutes is 51.8.

The Rabbitohs are interesting as well, with a massive 3RA of 90.3, although the season average is lower at 61.8 due to Latrell Mitchell only giving up 52.9 up to his first round off in Round 10.

Non-targets

The Roosters are the clear non-target here, sitting last of the teams playing with a season average of 48.3.

The Eels and Sharks are also poor recent matchups, with Parramatta’s 3RA at 45.3 and 5RA at 49.4, while Sharks sit at 48 and 49.

The Dolphins and Broncos are both fairly neutral, but neither stand out as strong targets.

Right half

Targets

The Eels are the best season long RH matchup from the teams playing, sitting at 73.2 with a 5RA of 73.6.

The Raiders are also strong at 68.5, with a 5RA of 69.2, while the Tigers are the big recent form play with a 3RA of 75.3 and 5RA of 86.2.

The Broncos are also worth noting, with a consistently mid-to-high profile across the season average, 5RA and Rd 1-11 numbers.

Non-targets

The Titans are the toughest RH matchup which might surprise a few, sitting at just 46.8 for the season with a 3RA of 37.3.

The Roosters are also poor at 47.5, while the Rabbitohs sit at 51.5 with weak recent numbers of 38 and 47.4.

The Warriors and Dolphins are not as low, but neither profile as strong targets.

Right second row

Targets

The Tigers are again the standout matchup this week. They sit at 76.3 for the season, but the recent numbers are the key, with a 3RA of 105 and 5RA of 92.8.

Parramatta are also a strong target at 78.5 for the season and a 5RA of 71.6. The Dolphins are worth a look based on recent form, with a 3RA of 79 and 5RA of 73.4, while Sharks also profile well with a 5RA of 73.2.

Non-targets

Sydney are the weakest matchup of the teams playing at 60.9, although their 5RA of 70 keeps them from being a complete avoid. Souths sit at 63.3 for the season, but the recent 3RA of 80.7 shows they may be more playable than the average suggests. Brisbane is the main caution despite the high season average, with their 3RA and 5RA both sitting in the high 50s.

Left wing

Targets

The Eels are the clear standout LW matchup from the teams playing, sitting at 73.6 for the season with a 3RA of 83.7 and 5RA of 79.2.

The Raiders are also strong, with a season average of 65.9, 3RA of 75.3 and 5RA of 69.

The Tigers are the major recent-form target, sitting at only 56.3 for the season but jumping to a 3RA of 91 and 5RA of 70.4.

The Rabbitohs are also worth noting, with a 5RA of 66.4 despite a lower season average of 54.9.

Non-targets

The Warriors are the weakest LW matchup of the teams playing, sitting at 45.2 for the season with a 3RA of 42.7 and 5RA of 40.4.

The Roosters are normally also a clear avoid, with a season average of 51 and very poor recent numbers of 37.7 and 35.8, however with the mass team changes this round the numbers are less effective to follow.

The Broncos are low at 50 for the season, although their recent numbers have improved, while the Dolphins are mixed with a 3RA of 63.7 but a 5RA of just 46.8.

Left centre

Targets

The Eels have the best season average for LC out of the teams playing at 69.2, although the recent form has cooled slightly with a 3RA of 55.3.

The Titans look like the cleaner current-form target, sitting at 66 for the season with a 3RA of 77.7 and 5RA of 69.8.

The Rabbitohs are also very playable, with a 3RA of 71 and 5RA of 79.2, while the Tigers are the big recent riser with a 3RA of 77.7 and 5RA of 80.4 despite a lower season average of 59.3.

Non-targets

The Warriors are the weakest LC matchup of the teams playing this round at 52.7. The Broncos are also low at 53.5, although the recent numbers are more respectable.

The Roosters are the clearest current-form avoid, with a 3RA of 47.3 and 5RA of 45 however as mentioned before it’s hard to trust the numbers this week for them considering the mass change in the backline.

The Raiders are another concern, with a 3RA of 44 and 5RA of 52.2 despite a season average of 59.6.

Left half

Targets

The Raiders are the top LH matchup of the teams playing, sitting at 70.2 with a 3RA of 83 and 5RA of 78.4. The Eels are just as, if not more, appealing with a season average of 68.2 and huge recent numbers of 102 over the last 3 and 91.6 over the last five.

The TItans are also solid at 65.6 for the season, while the Tigers are worth noting as a recent form play with their 5RA climbing to 73 despite a lower season average of 52.6.

Non-targets

The Warriors are the clear avoid at LH, sitting at just 44.1 for the season with a 3RA of 38.7 and 5RA of 43.8.

The Broncos are also a poor target at 48 for the season, with a 3RA of 35 and 5RA of 42.8. The Sharks are low as well at 49, while the Rabbitohs and Roosters sit in the low 50s or below for season average and are more matchup-dependent than clear targets.

Left second row

Targets

The Eels are the strongest L2RF matchup of all teams in the competition, sitting at 73.7 for the season with a strong 3RA of 81.3.

The Rabbitohs are also a strong target, with a season average of 71.3 and a 5RA of 75.4, while the Sharks profile well too, sitting at 70.3 for the season with a 3RA of 83.3 and 5RA of 73.6.

The Titans are the major form standout which aligns with the shift in the halves. Since Zane Harrison has played as the right half, the average for L2RF against the Titans has jumped significantly. In rounds 1-9 they sat at 57.3 but since Round 10 (when Harrison started playing), the position is averaging 88.

Non-targets

The Broncos are the weakest season-long L2RF matchup of the teams playing at 59.8, with a 5RA of only 57.6. The Tigers are also not a great target at 61.3, although their 5RA of 71.4 keeps them from being a full avoid.

The Raiders are a mixed read, with a solid season average of 70.5 and 5RA of 71.4, but the 3RA of 57 shows the recent form has dipped.

Hooker

Targets

The Tigers are one of the clearest targets this week for the hooker position. They sit at 71.5 for the season average but the 5RA is the real standout at 89, showing the matchup has become even stronger recently.

The Eels are also a strong and steady target, sitting at 71 for the season with a 3RA of 71.3 and 5RA of 71.2.

The Broncos are another strong form play, with a season average of 68.6 but a 3RA of 82 and 5RA of 81.6.

Non-targets The Warriors are the lowest hooker matchup of the teams playing at 54.8, so they are not ideal even though the recent numbers are very slightly better.

The Dolphins are also a clear caution, sitting at 59.3 for the season with a 3RA of 49.3 and 5RA of 49.8.

The Raiders and Rabbitohs are both middle of the road, while the Titans are not a strong target either with a 3RA of only 51.

Head over to Team Builder to set your team up for the round and watch the progress of all of your players throughout Round 15 in the Ballr NRL Match Centre.