Round 16 NRL SuperCoach Positional Averages & Matchups

By Alex Christie - @SuperCoachRealm on X

Emerging trends

The Dragons are still the clear team to attack, giving up 70.7 points per position across the season.

They remain top-end targets through fullback, both wings, right second row, hooker and left centre. The Tigers are the big watch this week. Their season average of 65.8 already puts them third overall, but the right-side numbers are even uglier.

They are conceding 68.6 points down that edge, behind only the Dragons among teams playing this round.

Methodology

Positional points conceded data is a key SuperCoach tool, but raw averages can be misleading.

Goalkicking, HIAs, sin bins, injuries and mid-game role changes can all shift where points are scored.

To make this more accurate, every average in this article has been manually tracked and adjusted to better show where teams are conceding points.

This article looks at season averages, while also using the last three-round average (3RA) and last five-round average (5RA) to highlight current trends.

Front row forward (FRF) has been excluded due to middle-forward rotations making it difficult to accurately assign points conceded.

Colour guide

• Blue – elite
• Green – good
• Yellow – okay
• Orange – not good
• Red – terrible

Team overview

In addition to those above, the Storm and Cowboys are both sitting at 65 overall, but their weaknesses are very position specific.

The Storm are leaking points to right second rowers and left centres, while the Cowboys are more vulnerable through right centre, right half and hooker.

The Titans are not as obvious overall at 63.6, but the positional splits stand out. Right centres and left halves are both in excellent spots against them, and their left-side average of 66.7 is one of the higher marks among teams playing.

At the other end, the Panthers remain the toughest matchup overall at 53.5. They are also the hardest left-side matchup at 49.1.

The Sea Eagles, Warriors, Dolphins and Roosters are all below 58.5 overall, so those are not teams to blindly target unless the position says otherwise.

Positional analysis

Fullback

The Dragons remain the clear number one fullback matchup, conceding 84.9 points per game to the position. Their 5RA is even higher at 88.6, so this is not just old data carrying the average.

Fullbacks against the Dragons continue to be one of the best positional targets in SuperCoach.

The Tigers are the major form-based target. Their season average is 78.8, but the recent numbers are huge, with a 3RA of 108 and a 5RA of 105 - comfortably the hottest fullback matchup in the competition right now among teams playing this week.

The Knights are also strong at 77.1 for the season, while the Storm sit at 72.5 with a 3RA of 86.7.

The Titans round out the 70 average teams at 70.1 and have a healthy 5RA of 78.6, so they are also a positive fullback matchup.

The Dolphins are the main trap. Their season average of 63 is fine on paper, but the 3RA is 49 and the 5RA is 42.8. That recent form makes them a much tougher fullback matchup than their season number suggests.

The Panthers and Sea Eagles remain the worst fullback matchup targets at 56.5 and 58.

Right wing

The Dragons are again the top matchup here, conceding 73.7 points to right wingers. The form backs it up too, with a 3RA of 93.7 and a 5RA of 93.6.

Any right winger facing the Dragons is in a premium scoring spot.

The Tigers are just behind them at 71.2 for the season, with recent numbers of 89 and 92.

That makes both the Dragons and Tigers clear right-wing targets this week.

The Bulldogs are a more interesting one. Their season average is 63.9 but the 3RA and 5RA are complete opposite ends of the spectrum so maybe a matchup that you aren’t specifically targeting, but not one to avoid.

The Knights and Warriors are also playable targets at 62.6 and 61.3, while the Raiders are worth noting because their 3RA is 78.7 despite a season average of 59.1.

The Dolphins remain the clear non-target at 37.8. The Panthers are also low at 41.7, while the Titans and Roosters sit under 49.

The Roosters have a 3RA of only 35.3, so this is not a great spot for right wingers despite the 5RA being better at 51.8.

Right centre

The Titans are the standout right-centre matchup, conceding 75.8 points for the season. Their 5RA is also high at 77.4, but the 3RA sits low at a 52 so one to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.

The Storm are next at 68.6, while the Cowboys are one of the best current-form targets.

North Queensland’s season average is 66.1, but the 3RA is 81.3 and the 5RA is 82.2. That makes right centres against the Cowboys one of the better plays on current form.

The Tigers are also solid at 63.5, while the Warriors, Raiders and Dragons all sit around the 59-62 range. The Raiders are not elite by season average, but they have conceded 69 across the last three rounds.

The Roosters are the toughest right-centre matchup at 48.4. The Bulldogs are also low at 52.1, while the Sharks are a clear avoid on recent numbers with a 3RA of 31.3 and a 5RA of 48.

The Panthers are another poor recent matchup, with a 3RA of 36.3 and a 5RA of 43.6.

Right half

The Cowboys are the top right-half matchup among teams playing this week, conceding 69.3 points for the season. The 3RA is 68.7, so the matchup has stayed consistent.

The Knights are next at 67.6, although their 5RA has dropped sharply to 42.4. That makes them a better season-long target than current-form target.

The Raiders sit at 65.1, but they are volatile. Their 3RA is only 31, while the 5RA is 64 and their Round 1-11 average was 71.2.

The Dragons, Tigers and Sharks are all in a similar range between 61.8 and 62.3. None are extreme targets, but they are still better than most of the bottom-end matchups.

The Titans are the clear non-target at 45.9, with a 3RA of 32 and a 5RA of 41.2.

The Sea Eagles, Bulldogs, Roosters and Panthers are also all under 52. Right halves against the Titans or Sea Eagles are especially hard to like this week.

Right second row

The Storm and Dragons are the two clear premium targets for right edge back rowers.

Melbourne concede 82.2 points per game to the position, while the Dragons are at 81.7. The Dragons’ recent numbers are even stronger, with a 3RA of 91.7 and a 5RA of 90.6.

The Tigers are another major target. Their season average is 77.5, but the 5RA has exploded to 104. That is the best current-form number in the position and makes the Tigers one of the strongest right-edge targets of the round.

The Panthers are also high at 70, and while they are normally a tough team overall, this specific position has been a point of weakness.

The Sharks, Cowboys, Warriors, Titans and Dolphins all sit between 67.5 and 69.4, so there are plenty of playable matchups in this position.

The Roosters are the lowest team playing at 61.8, followed by the Bulldogs at 62.8. The Sea Eagles are not a disaster at 66, but compared to the top-end targets, they are a much less appealing matchup.

Left wing

The Dragons are once again the standout, conceding 81.4 points to left wingers. The 5RA is 107, which is the highest recent number in the position. This is one of the best matchup spots on the field for anyone.

A big watch on the average change for the 5RA once Marzhew’s monster 207 drops out.

The Bulldogs are also a strong target at 69.7 for the season, with a 3RA of 94.3 and a 5RA of 81. The Storm sit at 68.4, while the Raiders and Cowboys are solid in the low 60s.

The Tigers and the Broncos are the big form watch. Their season averages are both in the mid to high 70’s, but the 3RAs are in the 90’s and the 5RAs are in the 70’s. That makes them a much better left-wing target now than the season number suggests.

The Sea Eagles are the lowest matchup at 44.3, while the Warriors are also low at 45.3. The Panthers are at 49.8 and the Dolphins have a 5RA of only 50.6.

The Roosters are another weaker target at 55.2, with a 5RA of 52.

Left centre

The Storm are the clear number one left-centre matchup, conceding 79.6 points for the season. Their 5RA is 84.8, so they remain a very strong current matchup as well.

The Dragons are next at 72.1, while the Titans sit at 68.5 with strong recent numbers of 80 and 78.8. The Roosters are also worth noting. Their season average is only 63.7, but the 3RA is 79.3, so the matchup has become more generous lately.

The Cowboys are another form-based target. Their season average is only 58.3, but the 3RA is 76.7 and the 5RA is 63.4. They are not in the same tier as the Storm or Dragons, but they are trending up.

The Sea Eagles are the lowest left-centre matchup at 49.3. The Knights are also a very poor current-form target, with a 3RA of only 25 and a 5RA of 48.

The Panthers, Warriors, Bulldogs, Sharks and Dolphins all sit between 52.7 and 55, so this is a position where the bad matchups are pretty clear.

Left half

The Titans are the best left half matchup by a clear margin, conceding 71.2 points for the season. Their recent numbers are even stronger at 84.7 for the 3RA and 79.2 for the 5RA.

This is the standout left half target of Round 16.

The Raiders are next among teams playing at 66.7, with a 5RA of 75.2. The Bulldogs are also a solid target at 63.9, while the Cowboys sit at 60.9.

The Dolphins are at 59.8, but their 3RA is 65.7, so the matchup has softened recently.

The Sea Eagles are the opposite. Their season average is only 53.9, but the 3RA is 84.3, making them a current-form watch rather than a clear season-long target.

The Panthers are easily the toughest left-half matchup at 38.2. The Warriors are also low at 45.6, while the Sharks are at 46.4 with a 3RA of 38.3 and a 5RA of 42.4.

The Storm and Knights are also not ideal, sitting around 50.

Left second row

The Dolphins are the top left edge back row matchup this week at 72.8. The 3RA is only 64.7, but the season and 5RA numbers still make them a strong target. The Raiders are right behind them at 71.9 and have a 5RA of 73, so they remain one of the best current matchups. The Sharks are also strong at 69.2, with a 3RA of 74.3 and a 5RA of 71.4. The Roosters, Titans and Cowboys are all solid options. The Titans are especially interesting because their season average is 67.2, but the 3RA is 91.3 and the 5RA is 83.2.

That makes them one of the best recent matchups despite not leading the season table.

The Panthers are the toughest matchup at 55.7. The Knights are also low at 58.3, while the Storm sit at 62.2.

The Dragons are a good reminder to check current form, because their season average is 65.9 but their 3RA has dropped to 48.

Hooker

The Dragons are the top hooker matchup at 72.5, although their recent numbers are lower at 61.7 and 56.8. They are still the highest season-long target, but not as dominant on current form.

The Tigers are the better recent-form target. Their season average is 71.2, with a 3RA of 80 and a 5RA of 88.2. That makes them the strongest hooker matchup on recent data.

The Cowboys are also strong at 70.9, with a 3RA of 81.3 and a 5RA of 76. The Bulldogs and Sharks both sit at 69.5, while the Roosters are at 68.1 with recent numbers of 87.7 and 78.8.

The Storm are the clear non-target at 56. The Warriors are next at 56.2, while the Raiders and Dolphins are both under 60.

The Dolphins are especially poor on current form with a 3RA of 53 and a 5RA of 49.4.

Don't miss a moment this weekend in the new and improved Ballr NRL Match Centres - now showing live team stats, match timelines and score summary alongside NRL SuperCoach statistics. Enjoy the round!