Round 17 NRL SuperCoach Positional Averages & Matchups

By Alex Christie - @SuperCoachRealm on X

There hasn't been a major shake-up from last week, but the top of the table is starting to look very settled for positional points conceded coming into Round 17.

The Dragons remain the clear team to target, still sitting 1st overall despite dropping slightly from 70.7 to 69.9 average points conceded across all positions.

The Tigers have pushed up again to 66.5 and continue to leak points across the outside backs, fullback, edge forwards and hooker.

The Cowboys, Raiders and Storm are still tightly packed behind them, making the top six largely the same group as last week.

At the other end, Penrith remain the toughest matchup in the competition. They have lifted slightly from 53.5 to 54.2 but still sit last overall and remain a clear avoid across several key positions. The Roosters, Sea Eagles and the Warriors also remain among the tougher teams to target. Both are particularly strong against outside backs, while the Warriors continue to suppress scoring in several spine and edge positions.

How it works

Positional points conceded data is a key SuperCoach tool, but raw averages can be misleading. Goalkicking, HIAs, sin bins, injuries and mid-game role changes can all shift where points are scored.

To make this more accurate, every average in this article has been manually tracked and adjusted to better show where teams are conceding points.

This article looks at season averages, while also using the last three-round average (3RA) and last five-round average (5RA) to highlight current trends.

Front Row Forward has been excluded due to middle-forward rotations making it difficult to accurately assign points conceded.

Colour guide:

• Blue – elite
• Green – good
• Yellow – okay
• Orange – not good
• Red – terrible

Positional analysis

Fullback

The Tigers are the clear team to target for fullback. Their season average is already high at 80.1, but the recent numbers have exploded to a 103.7 3RA and 109.8 5RA.

Kalyn Ponga gets the best recent fullback matchup on the board. Even with troops back for Ponga’s opposition, he is still one of the best captaincy options this round.

Kaeo Weekes also remains in play against the Dragons, who still concede the most to fullbacks overall at 84.1, even if their recent numbers have cooled slightly. Tom Trbojevic and Dylan Edwards both see themselves in mid-level matchups as their opponents this week both sit in the 60’s and 70’s range for both 5RA and 3RA.

The Dolphins and Manly are the main avoids. The Dolphins have conceded just 43.3 over the last three and 42.4 over the last five, making Tuaupiki a tough sell, while Fa’alogo runs into a Manly side allowing only 47 across the last five.

Right wing

The Dragons remain the standout right wing matchup and it isn’t particularly close. They rank 1st for average, 2nd for 3RA and 5RA, giving Xavier Savage one of the strongest matchups of the round.

In the same game the Raiders have also been the team to target, conceding 100.7 over the last three and 80 across the last five. That puts Tu in a much better spot than Canberra’s season average alone suggests. The Tigers are another clear target, with their 89-point 5RA giving Dominic Young a strong platform.

The Dolphins are still the hardest team to target here. They sit last for average, 3RA and 5RA, so Watene-Zelezniak gets the worst right-wing matchup of the week. Burns into Penrith and Kosi into Parramatta are also far from ideal.

Right centre

The Titans still sit 1st overall against right centres, but this one needs context. Their season number is ugly at 73.1, yet the 3RA has dropped to 50. Tuala gets the best season-long matchup, but it isn’t the hottest recent one.

The current form targets are Souths and North Queensland. Souths have conceded 75 over the last three and 71.4 over the last five, putting Samrani in a nice spot. The Cowboys are also strong across the board, which boosts whoever plays right centre out of Tago and Alamoti.

The Roosters remain the toughest overall matchup, sitting last at 47.7. Staggs has the hardest season-long draw, while Chester into Penrith and Duncan into Parramatta also rate very poorly based on recent form.

Right half

Parramatta remain the best right half matchup in the competition, sitting 1st overall and still conceding 74.8 across the last five. Ward gets the top matchup on season numbers.

Nathan Cleary also gets a huge one against the Cowboys, who have conceded 90.3 over the last three. This matchup makes him as appealing as Kalyn Ponga for the armband this weekend. Brown into the Tigers is another strong matchup, with Wests sitting top three for both recent averages.

The Titans are the clear avoid. They rank last for average while keeping their recent matchups under the 40 average mark, making Galvin’s matchup the toughest in the position. Moses into Souths and Martin into the Dolphins are also difficult, with both sides giving up very little across recent rounds.

Right second row

The Dragons are still the team to attack through the right edge. They are 1st overall, 1st for 3RA and 2nd for 5RA, with Zac Hosking getting the best edge forward matchup of the round.

The Tigers are not far behind on recent form. Their 92.8 5RA is the highest in the competition, giving McEwen a very strong matchup. Parramatta and Melbourne also remain strong season-long targets, although Melbourne’s recent numbers have tightened compared to their overall average.

Popular SuperCoach players David Fifita and Ativalu Lisati both have decent matchups this round as they come up against teams who both have a 5RA of 70.2. Canberra and the Dolphins are also worth noting after both climbed over 75 across the last five.

At the other end, Riki into the Roosters is the toughest season-long matchup, while Hau into the Bulldogs is also much less appealing than the top-end options. The only popular option coming up against a tough team based on form is Kulikefu Finefeuiaki who runs at the Warriors who have given up only 54.7 to right edges the past 3 games.

Left wing

The left wing data has some proper spikes this week. The Dragons still rank 1st overall, giving Tamale a strong season-long matchup, but their 54.7 3RA shows they have tightened recently. The better recent targets are the Tigers, Cowboys and Bulldogs.

Major sell option Greg Marzhew gets the hottest current matchup after the Tigers conceded 108 over the last three and 89.6 over the last five. Recent popular target Thomas Jenkins also gets a huge matchup against the Cowboys, while Sami gets a Bulldogs side conceding 89.3 over the last three.

Johnston into Parramatta remains strong as well, with the Eels sitting 2nd overall and top four across both recent averages. The main avoids are Leo into Manly, Cobbo into the Warriors and Skelton into Newcastle.

Left centre

Melbourne remain the dream left centre matchup. They are 1st for average, 3rd for 3RA, 2nd for 5RA and 1st for the early-season sample, so Koula gets one of the clearest green lights of the round.

The Titans, Tigers and Cowboys are also strong current targets. Burton gets a Titans side conceding 83 over the last three and 78.4 over the last five, while Best and Tago/Alamoti both get matchups trending heavily in the wrong direction.

Timoko into the Dragons and Siegwalt into Parramatta are still good season-long matchups, but not as hot recently. The clear avoid is May into Newcastle, with the Knights conceding just 27.7 over the last three and 30.2 over the last five.

Left half

The Titans continue to be the standout left half target. They rank 1st overall and have conceded 92.7 over the last three and 80.8 over the last five, putting Crichton in a huge matchup.

Parramatta are right there as well. They have conceded 82.7 over the last three and 90.6 over the last five, giving Cody Walker one of the best recent matchups in the position. Flanagan into Canberra also rates well, with the Raiders top four across every key sample.

The Panthers remain the clear team to avoid. Purdue has the toughest matchup, with Penrith sitting last for average, last for 5RA and near the bottom in every sample. Sanders into the Dragons and Brooks into Melbourne also look tough based on recent form.

Left second row

The Dolphins remain the top left edge forward matchup overall, giving Capewell the best season-long draw. They are not exploding like some other teams, but the consistency across every sample keeps them at the top.

Parramatta and Canberra are still premium targets, which keeps Aitken and Stewart firmly in the conversation. The strongest recent spikes, though, are the Titans, Tigers and Warriors. Lucas gets a Tigers side conceding 87 over the last three, while Salmon and Lemuelu also get very favourable matchups.

Young into the Dragons is more of a watch than a smash spot this week. The season number is solid, but the Dragons have dropped to just 49.3 over the last three. Nanai into Penrith remains the toughest matchup overall.

Hooker

North Queensland are the standout hooker matchup. They rank 1st overall and have conceded a monstrous 94.7 over the last three and 81 across the last five, putting Lussick/Scott in the best matchup of the position.

The Tigers remain a strong target as well, with Crossland getting a side conceding 87.7 over the last three. Smith/Humphreys also get a solid draw against Parramatta, while Paix and Robson both benefit from strong recent trends against the Roosters and Broncos.

The Dragons are a little misleading here. They still sit high overall, but their recent numbers have dropped sharply, so Pattie/Starling are not as strong as the season average suggests. Marshall-King into the Warriors is the toughest season-long matchup, while Cook/Liddle into Canberra is also on the lower end.

Don't miss a moment this weekend in the new and improved Ballr NRL Match Centres - now showing live team stats, match timelines and score summary alongside NRL SuperCoach statistics. Enjoy the round!