Round 18 NRL SuperCoach Positional Averages & Matchups

How it works

Positional points conceded data is a key SuperCoach tool, but raw averages can be misleading. Goalkicking, HIAs, sin bins, injuries and mid-game role changes can all shift where points are scored.

To make this more accurate, every average in this article has been manually tracked and adjusted to better show where teams are conceding points.

This article looks at season averages, while also using the last three-round average (3RA) and last five-round average (5RA) to highlight current trends.

Front Row Forward has been excluded due to middle-forward rotations making it difficult to accurately assign points conceded.

Colour guide

• Blue – elite
• Green – good
• Yellow – okay
• Orange – not good
• Red – terrible

The major difference this week is the context. Round 18 is the final major bye period, with only five games being played, and every Origin player missing from the teams involved. That means some of the season-long defensive numbers are more fragile than usual.

A team that normally defends a position well may be missing a key middle, edge, centre or fullback, which can completely change the way that matchup looks. So while the season averages still matter, this is a week where team lists need to be weighted much more heavily than normal.

Team Overview

There has not been a massive shake-up from last week, with the top of the table looking very settled for positional points conceded heading into Round 18.

The Dragons remain the clear team to target, still sitting 1st overall despite dropping again from 69.9 to 68.9 average points conceded across all positions.

Parramatta remain in 2nd, lifting slightly from 67.9 to 68.1, while the Tigers stay in 3rd despite dipping from 66.5 to 65.9. Both sides continue to give up points in key SuperCoach positions, with Parramatta still vulnerable through areas like fullback, left centre, left edge, right edge, right half and hooker, while the Tigers continue to concede heavily to fullbacks, right wingers, right edge forwards and hookers.

The Cowboys, Storm, Raiders and Titans are still tightly packed behind them, meaning the top group has stayed largely the same. 

At the other end, Penrith remain the toughest matchup in the competition. They have lifted slightly from 54.2 to 54.4 after their surprise defeat against the Cowboys but still sit last overall and remain a clear avoid across several key positions.

The Roosters and Sea Eagles are also among the tougher sides to target, both sitting at 56.9, while South Sydney, the Dolphins and Warriors are all in that lower range as well.

Fullback

The Dragons remain the standout fullback matchup, conceding 80.5 points per game to the position across the season. The recent numbers have cooled off compared to their earlier-season figure of 86.8, but they are still giving up 67.8 over the last five rounds which keeps Bula firmly in a strong matchup.

The Tigers are right behind them at 77.9, and unlike the Dragons their current form is getting worse. They have conceded 94.7 over the last three rounds and 93.6 over the last five, making Gutherson one of the better fullback matchups of the round.

Newcastle sit 3rd at 72.1, but the recent form is much tighter, conceding just 49 over the last three and 59.2 over the last five. Fuller still gets a decent season-long matchup, but it is nowhere near as friendly as the overall number suggests.

Parramatta are also in the target range at 71.7, with 75.3 conceded over the last three. Trbojevic gets a strong matchup, although the five-round average of 63.4 brings it back slightly.

At the other end, Penrith remain the toughest fullback matchup at 56.6, making Gray a clear danger spot. The Dolphins are also very strong recently, conceding just 35 over the last three and 43.4 over the last five, which makes Sharpe’s matchup far less appealing than the season number alone.

Right wing

The Dragons are still the clear right winger target, conceding 71.7 across the season. They have also given up 82.3 over the last three and 79.8 over the last five, making Skelton one of the strongest positional matchups this week.

The Tigers sit 2nd at 68.7, and while their three-round average is only 48.3, the five-round number is still high at 74.4. Tu gets a good draw, but it is not quite as strong on short-term form as the season average suggests.

Manly are 3rd at 68.3, but this is another one where the recent form tells a different story. They have conceded 50.8 over the last five, so Kelly’s matchup is more moderate than elite.

Newcastle are still giving up points to right wingers at 62.6, with 66.3 over the last three. Isaako gets a reasonable matchup which could push to one of the best when his goalkicking is added to the equation, especially compared to some of the tougher spots this week.

The clearest avoids are the Dolphins and Penrith. The Dolphins are conceding only 37.9 to right wingers, with 39 over the last five, making Young a very tough play. Penrith are not far behind at 41.4, so Kosi also gets one of the harder matchups.

Right centre

Gold Coast remain the biggest right centre target on the season, conceding 70.7 to the position. The catch is that they are on the bye, and their recent form has been much stronger anyway, conceding only 38.3 over the last three and 46.2 over the last five.

Melbourne and North Queensland are also near the top, but both are on the bye. That leaves the Tigers as the first major playable matchup, conceding 60.9 across the season to right centres. Their recent numbers are much tighter at 36.3 over the last three, so Feagai’s matchup is better on season average than current form.

The Dragons sit at 60.3, and unlike the Tigers, their recent form is still steady enough, conceding 65 over the last three. To’a gets a solid matchup.

Brisbane are also worth noting at 59.5, with 69.3 conceded over the last three. Ramien gets one of the better form matchups among the playable sides.

The Roosters are the toughest right centre matchup at 46.8, though they are on the bye. Penrith are the key active avoid, conceding only 55.9 on the season, with just 34.7 over the last three and 39.2 over the last five.

Right half

Parramatta remain the top right half matchup, conceding 71.6 across the season. They have been a little better recently but still sit at 69 over the last three and 62.8 over the last five, which keeps Fogarty in a strong spot.

North Queensland are 2nd at 70.8, but they are on the bye, leaving Brisbane as the next major active target. The Broncos are conceding 66.1 to right halves, and Hynes gets a good matchup despite the recent form being more controlled at 55.7 over the last three, still providing a decent captaincy option.

Newcastle are also in the target range at 65.9, with 65.3 over the last three. Schneider gets a very playable matchup.

The Dragons sit at 62.8, with both the season and recent numbers sitting in a similar range. Doueihi gets a solid draw, but not one of the absolute best on the slate.

South Sydney are the clear avoid among active sides. Souths have conceded only 49.5 to right halves, with 35.3 over the last three and 37.8 over the last five. Cogger gets a brutal matchup.

Right second row

Melbourne sit 1st against right edge forwards at 82.3 but they are on the bye, so the Dragons become the main Round 18 target. The Dragons are conceding 79.6 across the season, with 79.7 over the last three and 81.4 over the last five. Sukkar gets a huge matchup.

Parramatta are next at 77.7, and while the 5RA number has dipped to 67.8, it is still a strong matchup for Waddell.

The Tigers remain a major target as well, conceding 74.6 across the season and 77.6 over the last five. Egan gets a strong edge matchup.

Brisbane are another playable target at 72.2, with 66.7 over the last three and 64.6 over the last five. Burns gets a good matchup, although not quite as soft as the season number.

Penrith are interesting. They are normally one of the harder teams overall, but they are allowing 70.9 to right edge forwards, with 70 over the last three. Whoever slots into the right edge spot out of Fifita and Duncan gets a better positional matchup than you would usually expect against Penrith.

South Sydney are the toughest active matchup here at 61.1, so Garner has the least appealing draw among the Round 18 options.

Left wing

Canterbury sit 1st for left winger points conceded at 75.5, but they are on the bye. The Dragons yet again are the key active target, conceding 74.4 across the season. The concern is recent form, with only 38.3 conceded over the last three, but the season number still gives Turuva a very strong matchup.

Parramatta are also excellent to target at 69.4, with a 5RA of 67. Hopoate gets one of the better left wing matchups this week.

Brisbane are another active side worth targeting, despite sitting mid-table at 59.3 for the season. They have conceded 107 over the last three and 83.8 over the last five to left wingers, which gives Mulitalo a massive current-form matchup.

The Tigers are similar. They sit at 61.1 overall but have conceded 80.3 over the last three and 86.8 over the last five. Sloan’s matchup is far better than the season average suggests.

Manly remain the clear avoid, conceding only 41.5 to left wingers, with 24.7 over the last three and 35.2 over the last five. Addo-Carr has the toughest matchup on the board.

Left centre

Melbourne remain the clear left centre target at 81.7, but they are on the bye. The Dragons are the standout active matchup (this might be a new drinking game), conceding 70.3 across the season, although their recent numbers are much lower at 60 over the last three and 57 over the last five. Makasini still gets a decent draw.

Parramatta are next at 69.7, with 61 over the last three and 62.4 over the last five. Faulalo gets a good matchup, even if it is not as explosive as the season average.

The Tigers are another active side to attack at 61.9, with 72.3 over the last three and 75.2 over the last five. Holmes gets one of the better form matchups at left centre.

Brisbane are also giving up points recently, with 75.3 conceded over the last three and 68.6 over the last five. Iro gets a much better matchup than Brisbane’s season average of 57.4 suggests.

Manly remain the toughest left centre matchup at 47.9, with 39 over the last three and 38.2 over the last five. Russell gets a very difficult draw. Newcastle are also extremely strong recently, conceding just 34 over the last three and 30 over the last five, making Farnworth’s matchup risky. Potentially enough of a reason to go against Farnworth as a captaincy option?

Left half

Gold Coast are the top left half target at 72.3, but they are on the bye. Parramatta are the main active side to target, conceding 69.3 across the season with 73 over the last three and a massive 92.2 over the last five. Walsh gets one of the best matchups on the slate.

The Dolphins are another very relevant one. They sit at 59.1 for the season but have conceded 61.7 over the last three and 61.4 over the last five, giving Smith a solid matchup.

The Tigers are around the middle at 54.8 but have allowed 63.7 over the last three and 63.6 over the last five. Flanagan’s matchup is better than the season number suggests.

Brisbane are also worth flagging. They sit at only 53.3 for the season but have conceded 84 over the last three. Trindall gets a strong current-form matchup, even if the 5RA is only 56.

Penrith remain the toughest left half matchup at 42 and have also been strong recently at 42.4 over the last five. Walker has the worst draw of the round. Cronulla are also very strong at 46.9, so Duffy has a difficult matchup.

Left second row

Parramatta are the top left edge forward matchup, conceding 74.9 across the season. They have also allowed 77.3 over the last three and 82 over the last five, making Trbojevic one of the strongest edge matchups of the round.

The Dolphins are right behind them at 73.7, with 78.3 over the last three and 70.4 over the last five. Lucas gets a very strong matchup.

South Sydney are also in the target zone at 69.3, giving Sorensen a good draw, while the Tigers are a strong current-form target, sitting at 67.8 overall but having conceded 93.7 over the last three and 82 over the last five, making Stewart’s matchup excellent.

Cronulla are another side worth targeting at 68.5, and Piakura gets a decent matchup there.

The Dragons are a slight trap here. They are conceding 66.1 across the season but have allowed only 55.8 over the last five. Fainu’s matchup is fine, but it is not one of the better form spots.

Penrith remain the toughest left edge matchup at 56.7, with very little difference between season, 3RA and 5RA numbers. It is the opposite story to the right edge, so whoever gets the left edge spot out of Duncan and Fifita has a difficult matchup. 

Newcastle also sit near the bottom of the rankings with a season average of 57.9 and consistent 3RA and 5RA numbers, making it a tough matchup for Lemuelu.

Hooker

North Queensland sit 1st against hookers at 73.3, but they are on the bye. The Dragons are the main active team to target (seriously when will this end), conceding 72.9 across the season and 69.7 over the last three. Koroisau gets an excellent matchup.

The Tigers are also still very friendly at 70.9, with 75.6 over the last five. Cook and Liddle get a strong draw but they share minutes.

Parramatta are level with the Tigers at 70.9, and have conceded 70.8 over the last five, making Simpkin another strong matchup play.

Cronulla remain high at 69.5, with 71.3 over the last three. Paix and Mozer get a good matchup, although minutes make them irrelevant.

Brisbane are also vulnerable at 68.2, with 75.6 over the last five. Berrell and Puru get a decent matchup if the role is there.

The Warriors are the toughest hooker matchup at 57.7, but they are on the bye. Among active teams, Penrith are difficult at 60.8, while South Sydney are at 60.9. Smith and the Lussick/Scott combination are not in awful matchups, but they are not standout targets either.

Don't miss a moment this weekend in the new and improved Ballr NRL Match Centres - now showing live team stats, match timelines and score summary alongside NRL SuperCoach statistics. Enjoy the round!