Round 19 NRL SuperCoach Positional Averages & Matchups

By Alex Christie - @SuperCoachRealm

How it works

Positional points conceded data is a key SuperCoach tool, but raw averages can be misleading. Goalkicking, HIAs, sin bins, injuries and mid-game role changes can all shift where points are scored.

To make this more accurate, every average in this article has been manually tracked and adjusted to better show where teams are conceding points.

This article looks at season averages, while also using the last three-round average (3RA) and last five-round average (5RA) to highlight current trends.

Front Row Forward has been excluded due to middle-forward rotations making it difficult to accurately assign points conceded.

Colour guide:

• Blue – elite
• Green – good
• Yellow – okay
• Orange – not good
• Red – terrible

Team Overview

There hasn't been a major shake-up from last week, with the top seven teams all holding their spots despite a few positional changes. Parramatta have closed the gap on the Dragons and now share top spot after both finished Round 18 conceding 67.4 adjusted points per game across all positions.

The Rabbitohs were the biggest mover this week. Their overall average climbed by 1.3 points and they also recorded the largest increase on both edges, making them a side worth keeping an eye on if that trend continues.

The Dragons still lead the competition for right-edge points conceded despite tightening by 1.4 points. Parramatta strengthened their grip as the biggest left-edge target after climbing to 71.0, leaving them comfortably clear of the Titans and Storm.

Penrith may still rank as the toughest side to target, but with the Panthers sitting out this week the focus shifts elsewhere. The Roosters, Sea Eagles and Dolphins all continue to concede well below the competition average and loom as three of the hardest matchups for SuperCoach coaches in Round 19.

Fullback

Canberra are the team that jumps off the page this week. Their season average already had them among the better fullback matchups, but the last three rounds have taken it to another level. They've leaked 93.7 points per game in their last three, comfortably the highest recent figure in the competition. Connor Tracey walks into one of the safest fullback matchups of Round 19.

The season numbers don't tell the full story elsewhere either. Manly have quietly become far more vulnerable than their overall ranking suggests, jumping from 63.0 across the season to 84.7 over the past three rounds. Scott Drinkwater lands in a matchup that looks much stronger once recent form is factored in.

On the other side of the ledger, Newcastle have slammed the door shut. They still rank inside the top five easiest teams to target over the full season, but that has changed dramatically over the past month. Their three-round average has crashed to just 43.0 before improving slightly to 58.0 across five rounds. Matthew Dufty's prospective buyers should temper expectations despite what the season average says.

The Dolphins and the Roosters tell a similar story. They've been one of the toughest fullback matchups all year and nothing has changed recently. A shared three-round average of 43.3 reinforces why William Kennedy and Isaiah Iongi face some of the hardest assignments of the round.

Right wing

Canberra are the team to attack on the right wing this week. Their season numbers were already strong, but the past month has taken them to another level. They've conceded 72.7 points over the past three rounds and a massive 82.2 across the past five. Jacob Kiraz gets one of the best wing matchups of Round 19.

The Warriors are another side heading in the wrong direction. Their recent numbers have climbed across both samples, putting Jeral Skelton in a strong position. Cronulla have also opened up over the past month, giving Jamayne Isaako a better matchup than their season average suggests.

Parramatta have gone the other way. They've conceded just 31.3 points over the past three rounds before backing it up with 39.2 across the past five. Mark Nawaqanitawase has the talent to score against anyone, but the numbers say this is one of the toughest wing matchups of the week.

The Dolphins remain just as difficult. They've barely moved all season and continue to shut down opposition right wingers, making Sione Katoa one of the riskier plays this round.

Right centre

Gold Coast still sit on top of the season rankings, but they're no longer the defence they were a month ago.

They've tightened dramatically over recent weeks, conceding just 38.3 points across the past three rounds. Nick Meaney's matchup looks outstanding on season numbers, but recent form says otherwise.

South Sydney have quietly become one of the better teams to attack. Their season average doesn't jump off the page, but they've leaked plenty of points over the past month. Dane Gagai lands in a matchup that deserves more attention than it will probably get.

Canberra, Roosters and Cronulla are the teams to avoid. All have tightened considerably and have become difficult sides to attack through the centres.

Right half

If you're picking a halfback based purely on matchup, North Queensland should be near the top of the list.

The Cowboys have leaked points all season and haven't improved recently. They've conceded more than 77 points over the past three rounds, giving Jamal Fogarty one of the strongest matchups of the week.

Parramatta still profile as a good target, although they've quietly improved over the past month. Daly Cherry-Evans still gets a favourable draw, just not quite the gift it looked like earlier in the season.

Newcastle have tightened considerably. Their recent numbers are well below their season average, making Ashton Ward's matchup tougher than it first appears.

South Sydney are the clear avoid. They've become one of the hardest teams in the competition to score against at halfback and Dylan Brown faces a genuine uphill battle.

Right second row

Melbourne remain a premium edge matchup, but Newcastle have stolen the spotlight.

The Knights have opened up dramatically over the past month, pushing well beyond their season average. David Fifita gets one of the best second row matchups on the board and could be in line for attacking opportunities.

Canberra have quietly become another side worth targeting. Their season numbers don't stand out, but the past five rounds suggest they're leaking far more points than they were earlier in the year, although it does align with Hudson Young being in the Origin side.

Gold Coast deserve a mention because they've been consistently generous all season. There hasn't been a dramatic spike, they've simply remained one of the better edge matchups from start to finish.

North Queensland have gone the opposite way. Their recent numbers have improved significantly, taking plenty of value out of Haumole Olakau'atu's matchup. Cronulla have followed a similar path and are no longer the edge target they were earlier in the season.

Left wing

Left wing is where the biggest stories are this week.

Canterbury have become almost impossible to ignore. They were already conceding points, but recent form has taken things to another level. Sebastian Kris lands in one of the standout matchups of Round 19.

North Queensland aren't far behind. Their recent numbers have blown past an already high season average, making Lehi Hopoate another player capable of posting a huge score.

The Tigers have also fallen away badly. Their past month has been significantly worse than their season average, putting Alofiana Khan-Pereira firmly in the conversation as one of the best wing plays of the round.

At the other end, Manly have completely shut teams down. They've been outstanding over both recent samples and remain one of the toughest wing matchups in the competition. Cronulla and Newcastle have also tightened considerably, making life difficult for anyone lining up against them.

Left centre

Melbourne continue to be the benchmark matchup at left centre. Their season numbers are elite and recent form hasn't changed that. AJ Brimson gets one of the safest centre matchups available this week.

The Tigers are the team making the biggest move. Their season average is fairly ordinary, but recent form shows they've become a far better side to attack. Adam Pompey gets a matchup that's stronger than the season rankings suggest.

The Roosters have also leaked plenty of points over the past month. That puts Araz Nanva firmly on the radar after what has been a difficult position to target for most of the year.

Manly remain the standout avoid. They've been exceptional defensively and continue to concede very little through left centre. Newcastle aren't far behind, while Cronulla have quietly become another defence that's difficult to attack.

Left half

Gold Coast still own this position. Their season average was already high, but recent form has pushed it even further. Cameron Munster walks into one of the best matchups of Round 19.

Parramatta remain just as appealing. Their numbers have held strong across every sample and continue to make them one of the safest teams to target with left halves.

Manly are the surprise packet. They don't rate highly on the season average, but the past month has been a completely different story with Haumole Olakau’atu in Origin. Jake Clifford could have a stronger matchup than most coaches will realise.

Newcastle have slammed the door shut. They've become one of the toughest sides to attack and Jayden Sullivan gets one of the hardest jobs of the week. Cronulla have also improved considerably and deserve to be avoided.

Left second row

The Dolphins remain the standout season matchup, but Melbourne have become the bigger story.

The Storm have exploded over the past month, giving Beau Fermor one of the premier edge matchups of the round. Gold Coast have done the same, while the Tigers have also opened up significantly after sitting much lower earlier in the season.

Parramatta continue to leak points without attracting much attention. Their consistency across the season and recent form make them one of the safest edge targets available.

Cronulla have tightened considerably and no longer deserve to be viewed as a team to attack. Canterbury have followed the same path and have become one of the more difficult edge matchups over the past month.

Hooker

North Queensland continue to set the standard at hooker. They've conceded points all season and recent form has only strengthened their case. Jacob Simpkin gets the best matchup at the position this week and should be one of the more popular plays.

The Tigers remain a reliable target and Cronulla have quietly joined them after leaking points consistently over the past month. The Dolphins have also opened up recently, giving Jeremy Marshall-King another strong matchup.

The biggest surprise is Melbourne. Their season average suggests they should be avoided, but the past three rounds tell a completely different story. They've leaked more than 80 points, making this one of the biggest recent shifts in any position.

Manly remain the side to stay away from. They've defended the position extremely well over the past month, while Canterbury and Gold Coast have also made life difficult for opposition hookers.

Don't miss a moment this weekend in the new and improved Ballr NRL Match Centres - now showing live team stats, match timelines and score summary alongside NRL SuperCoach statistics. Enjoy the round!