Round 20 NRL SuperCoach Positional Averages & Matchups

By Alex Christie - @SuperCoachRealm

How it works

Positional points conceded data is a key SuperCoach tool, but raw averages can be misleading. Goalkicking, HIAs, sin bins, injuries and mid-game role changes can all shift where points are scored.

To make this more accurate, every average in this article has been manually tracked and adjusted to better show where teams are conceding points.

This article looks at season averages, while also using the last three-round average (3RA) and last five-round average (5RA) to highlight current trends.

Front Row Forward has been excluded due to middle-forward rotations making it difficult to accurately assign points conceded.

Colour guide:

• Blue – elite
• Green – good
• Yellow – okay
• Orange – not good
• Red – terrible

Team Overview

The overall rankings haven't shifted dramatically heading into Round 20, but the race behind the competition's biggest targets is beginning to tighten.

The Dragons and Eels still lead the season averages, although both sit out this week on the bye. That shifts the focus to the Tigers, who remain one of the safest teams to target regardless of position. Their overall average of 66.4 continues to back up what we've seen for much of the season, with very few signs of improvement across the field.

Behind them, the middle of the table has become increasingly difficult to separate. North Queensland, Melbourne, Gold Coast and Canberra are all within 1.6 points of each other, meaning overall averages only tell part of the story. The positional breakdowns and recent trends now carry far more weight than they did earlier in the season.

Among the teams in action, the Roosters continue to strengthen as an overall defensive side. They're down to 56.3 adjusted points conceded per position and remain one of the tougher teams to target across both edges. Manly and the Dolphins sit alongside them, leaving SuperCoach coaches with very few obvious opportunities against any of those three sides this week.

The directional splits reinforce that trend. The Tigers still concede heavily down their right edge, while the Roosters and Sea Eagles continue to defend both sides of the field well. Those overall numbers provide a useful starting point, but as always, the biggest opportunities become much clearer once each position is broken down.

Fullback

The Tigers have been one of the easiest teams to target at fullback for most of the season, but that edge has started to disappear. After conceding 77.7 points a game between Rounds 12 and 19, they've tightened considerably over the past month, allowing just 41.0 across the past three rounds. Connor Tracey's matchup still stacks up on the season numbers, but it's no longer the gift it looked like a few weeks ago.

Melbourne have quietly become a team to attack. Their season average was already among the highest in the competition, and they've leaked even more points since the bye period. Cody Ramsey gets one of the strongest fullback matchups of the round.

Manly deserve more attention than they'll probably get. Their overall average isn’t as high as the Melbourne and Newcastle type, but they've continued to concede heavily through the second half of the season, giving Keano Kini an underrated opportunity.

The Dolphins remain one of the toughest teams to score against. They've defended the position well all season and have been even stronger since the byes, making Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow's matchup one of the more difficult this week.

The Roosters continue to be one of the toughest teams to attack at fullback. They've been elite all season and have tightened even further over recent weeks, making Sua Fa'alogo's matchup probably the hardest of Round 20. He's capable of producing points against anyone, but the numbers suggest coaches should temper expectations this week.

Right wing

Manly continue to be the benchmark matchup on the right wing. They still lead the season averages and despite easing slightly since the bye period, remain one of the safest teams to target. Dean Ieremia gets an excellent opportunity if the Titans can create enough ball.

The Warriors have quietly become another defence to attack. Their recent numbers have crept above their season average, while Canberra continue to leak points consistently on that edge. Setu Tu and Campbell Graham both find themselves in strong matchups.

Cronulla are another side trending the wrong way. Their season average looks fairly ordinary, but recent form has opened the door for Dom Young to produce one of his better scores of the season.

The Roosters have become the clear avoid. They've conceded just 35.8 points a game since the bye period and continue to shut down opposition right wingers better than almost anyone else. Warbrick owners should be tempering expectations.

Right centre

The Titans still lead the season averages, but they aren't the same defence they were before the byes. They've tightened considerably over the second half of the year, taking plenty of value out of what once looked like one of the best centre matchups in the game. Reuben Garrick still has upside, just not as much as the overall numbers suggest.

South Sydney have quietly become a side to target. Their defence has opened through recent weeks and Simi Sasagi lands in a matchup that deserves more attention than it'll probably receive.

The Dolphins have also become more vulnerable than their season average suggests. Tom Chester gets a genuine opportunity against a defence that's been easier to score against over the past month.

Canberra remain the side to avoid. They've been outstanding over the past three rounds and continue to make life difficult for opposition right centres. Matt Timoko's matchup is one of the toughest of the round.

Right half

North Queensland continue to give opposition halfbacks every chance to score. Their numbers have barely shifted all year, making Brad Schneider one of the standout matchup plays this week.

The Dolphins have opened up dramatically over the past month. They've conceded almost 95 points across the past three rounds with around 150 of those points being last week against Nicho Hynes, turning what was already a good matchup into one of the best on the board. Tom Dearden or Jake Clifford should both benefit if the Cowboys can control possession.

The Dragons remain a dependable side to target without producing huge swings in either direction. Te Maire Martin gets another matchup that should keep owners confident heading into the round.

Gold Coast and the Roosters have become the hardest teams to attack. Their defence has improved significantly since the byes, making Jamal Fogarty and Trent Toelau’s matchups much tougher than the season average suggests.

Right second row

Melbourne continue to set the standard through the right edge. Their season average remains comfortably the highest in the competition and they've still been leaking enough points since the byes to keep Siua Wong among the best edge matchups of the round.

Newcastle have quietly joined them. Their defence has fallen away over the second half of the season, giving Briton Nikora one of the strongest opportunities at the position this week.

Canberra have also become more vulnerable than many coaches probably realise. Their average since the bye period is well above their season number, putting David Fifita in another favourable matchup.

The Warriors have tightened considerably and no longer deserve to be viewed as an automatic edge target. Dylan Egan can still score well, but the matchup isn't nearly as appealing as it was earlier in the season.

Left wing

Canterbury continue to set the pace on the left edge and nothing over the second half of the season suggests they'll be slowing down. They've conceded more than 91 points a game since the major byes, making Jacob Skelton one of the standout wing matchups of the round.

The Dragons tell a very different story. They were one of the biggest targets through the opening 11 rounds, but they've tightened dramatically since then. Alofiana Khan-Pereira still has the ability to score against anyone, though the matchup isn't nearly as attractive as the season average suggests.

The Tigers have become one of the hottest left wing matchups in the competition. They've conceded 93 points a game since the bye period and continue to struggle containing attacking wingers. Jethro Rinakama’s position gives him plenty of upside this week, while Selwyn Cobbo also finds himself in an excellent spot against North Queensland.

At the other end, Manly remain the clear avoid. They've conceded just 38.1 points a game since the byes and continue to shut down left wingers better than anyone in the competition. Cronulla have also tightened considerably, making Greg Marzhew's matchup much tougher than it first appears.

Left centre

Melbourne still own this position. Even after a slight improvement since the byes, they're comfortably the best left centre matchup in the competition. Billy Smith and Hugo Savala should both find opportunities if Newcastle can generate enough attacking football.

The Tigers have become another defence to attack. Their recent numbers sit well above their season average, giving Max Burton one of the better centre matchups of the week. Gold Coast have also opened up again after a brief improvement, putting Tolutau Koula firmly in calculations.

Brisbane deserve more attention than they'll probably receive. They've leaked more than 75 points a game since the bye period and Casey McLean in his return game gets one of the stronger matchups of Round 20.

Manly remain the benchmark avoid. They've conceded just 34.3 points a game over the second half of the season and continue to lock down left centres. Cronulla and Newcastle aren't far behind, making AJ Brimson, KL Iro and Bradman Best much tougher plays than their season averages might suggest.

Left half

Gold Coast continue to be the defence every left half wants to see. They've conceded more than 81 points a game since the bye period and still look vulnerable whenever sides attack through the middle. Joey Walsh gets one of the standout matchups of the week.

Manly have quietly become another side to target. They've leaked almost 78 points a game since the byes, while Brisbane have also drifted backwards after showing signs of improvement earlier in the season. Both Jayden Campbell and Blaize Talagi land in favourable matchups.

Canberra deserve a mention as well. They've remained consistently generous all season without producing the sharp swings seen elsewhere, giving Cody Walker another reason to be firmly in calculations.

The other end of the table is becoming much clearer. Newcastle have been outstanding defensively over the second half of the season, conceding just 35.8 points a game. Cronulla have been even better, allowing only 37 points since the byes. Fletcher Sharpe and Braydon Trindall both face difficult assignments, while Ezra Mam also runs into one of the tougher left half matchups against Penrith.

Left second row

Canberra have become the premier matchup on the left edge. Their season average was already among the highest in the competition, but they've conceded more than 70 points a game since the bye period. Euan Aitken gets one of the safest edge matchups of Round 20.

The Titans have opened up even further. They've leaked 86.5 points a game across the second half of the season and Ethan Bullemor should find plenty of opportunities running at that edge. Melbourne and the Tigers also remain excellent teams to target, keeping Nat Butcher and whoever lands the left edge spot for the Bulldogs firmly on the radar.

The Dragons are heading the opposite way. Their left edge has tightened significantly since the byes, taking a lot of value out of what was once one of the best edge matchups in SuperCoach. Kurt Capewell's draw isn't nearly as appealing as the season average suggests.

Newcastle continue to be one of the safest defensive sides in the competition through this position. They've allowed fewer than 58 points a game since the byes, while Penrith remain equally difficult to break down. Teig Wilton and Brendan Piakura both face tougher matchups than they would have earlier in the season.

Hooker

The Tigers have become the standout hooker matchup over the second half of the season. They've conceded almost 80 points a game since the byes and Bailey Hayward walks into one of the strongest matchups of the round. North Queensland aren't far behind, with Jeremy Marshall-King getting another opportunity against a defence that continues to struggle through the middle.

Melbourne are an interesting watch. Their season average doesn't stand out, but they've leaked more than 70 points a game since the byes after an even bigger spike across the past three rounds. Reece Robson owners should be feeling confident.

The Dolphins have quietly become another side worth targeting. They've remained consistently vulnerable through the middle and Reed Mahoney gets one of the better matchups of the week.

If you're looking for an avoid, Canberra continue to lead the way. They've conceded just 56.9 points a game since the bye period and remain one of the toughest teams to score against at hooker. Manly have also tightened considerably over the second half of the season, making Oliver Pascoe a much riskier proposition than he would've been earlier in the year.

Don't miss a moment this weekend in the new and improved Ballr NRL Match Centres - now showing live team stats, match timelines and score summary alongside NRL SuperCoach statistics. Enjoy the round!