Round 21 NRL SuperCoach Positional Averages & Matchups

By Alex Christie - @SuperCoachRealm

How it works

Positional points conceded data is a key SuperCoach tool, but raw averages can be misleading. Goalkicking, HIAs, sin bins, injuries and mid-game role changes can all shift where points are scored.

To make this more accurate, every average in this article has been manually tracked and adjusted to better show where teams are conceding points.

This article looks at season averages, while also using the last three-round average (3RA) and last five-round average (5RA) to highlight current trends.

Front Row Forward has been excluded due to middle-forward rotations making it difficult to accurately assign points conceded.

Colour guide

• Blue – elite
• Green – good
• Yellow – okay
• Orange – not good
• Red – terrible

Team Overview

The Eels lead the competition on 67.2 points conceded per position making them the easiest team to target overall, just ahead of the Dragons on 66.8, who finally aren’t leading the league. Wests Tigers sit third on 66.6, almost identical to the 66.4 they carried into Round 20 and remain one of the most reliable teams to attack regardless of position.

North Queensland, Melbourne, Gold Coast and Canberra are bunched from 65.1 down to 63.2, a slightly wider spread than a week ago, with Canberra the furthest back of the four.

The splits explain some of that bunching. The Dragons’ right side is doing the damage, easily the leakiest right edge in the league at 67.1, while their left sits more respectably at 63.1. The Eels are the mirror image, brutal down the left at 71 but only moderate on the right at 61.8. Gold Coast follow the same pattern as the Eels, second worst left side in the competition at 67.3 despite a tighter right edge.

The bottom of the table has moved more. Last week Manly, Dolphins, Warriors, Sharks, Rabbitohs and the Roosters were all bunched together fighting it out behind Penrith for the competition's second best defensive form. That fight has been settled. The Roosters have pulled clear on 55.8, the clear-cut second best defence in the league, while Manly (58.2), the Dolphins (58.7), the Warriors (57.7), the Sharks (58.9) and the Rabbitohs (59.8) are all still scrapping it out for third.

Fullback

Keano Kini faces the highest ranked fullback matchup, with the Dragons conceding 76.6 points per game for the season, however, this needs some recent context. Their average has dropped to 41.3 across the last three rounds and 57.6 across the last five.

James Tedesco has the strongest matchup when season and recent form are combined. Newcastle concede 74.2 for the season and have climbed to a position high 84.7 across the last three. Tom Jenkins also moves into fullback with a favourable matchup against Parramatta, whose 71.2 season average is backed by a 72.2 five round average.

Reece Walsh faces a Cowboys side allowing 67.1 for the season, 72.7 across the last three and 73.8 across the last five. Scott Drinkwater’s matchup against Brisbane is more stable at 66.1 for the season, 67.0 across the last three and 65.4 across the last five. Sua Fa’alogo faces a volatile South Sydney defence that sits at 64.6 for the season but has jumped to 85.7 across the last three.

At the bottom, Kalyn Ponga faces the most difficult fullback matchup. The Roosters concede just 57.6 for the season and have tightened further to 46.0 across the last three and 47.8 across the last five. Taine Tuaupiki also faces a difficult Bulldogs defence sitting at 58.0 for the season and 49.7 across the last three.

Right wing

Dean Ieremia faces the highest ranked right wing matchup, with the Dragons conceding 70.3 for the season. Their recent numbers are less convincing at 57.0 across the last three, although the five round average remains high at 73.0. Sione Katoa gets the strongest matchup across almost every timeframe against Manly who allow 69.8 for the season, 77.3 across the last three and 77.0 across the last five.

Mark Nawaqanitawase also draws a strong matchup against Newcastle. The Knights concede 64.0 for the season and have risen to 71.0 across the last three. Jacob Kiraz faces a Warriors side allowing 61.5 for the season, but their recent averages have tightened to 50.7 across the last three and 56.4 across the last five.

Setu Tu has the opposite split against Gold Coast. The Titans concede only 52.7 for the season but have climbed to 69.0 across the last three and 62.4 across the last five.

Dom Young faces the clear worst matchup at the position. The Roosters concede a position low 44.6 for the season, 20.0 across the last three and 35.6 across the last five. Brian To’o also faces a difficult Parramatta defence allowing 47.3 for the season and 39.6 across the last five. Brian Kelly’s matchup against Penrith sits only slightly lower at 42.2 for the season.

Right centre

Mat Feagai faces the highest ranked right centre matchup, with the Titans conceding 72.9 for the season and 72.3 across the last three rounds. Their five round average has dropped to 59.0 but it remains the strongest season long matchup by a clear margin.

Simi Sasagi also draws a favourable matchup against the Tigers. They allow 63.4 for the season and have climbed to 75.7 across the last three. Tom Chester faces a Brisbane side sitting at 57.4 for the season, with their three round average dropping to 49.7. Rob Toia’s matchup against Newcastle is similarly mixed at 56.6 for the season, 56.0 across the last three and 49.4 across the last five.

Reuben Garrick has one of the toughest assignments against Cronulla. The Sharks concede 53.3 for the season and have tightened to 35.0 across the last three and 42.4 across the last five.

The Roosters remain the lowest ranked right centre matchup overall at 46.7, leaving Fletcher Hunt with the toughest season long assignment. Canberra have been even more restrictive recently, allowing only 29.0 across the last three and 34.0 across the last five for Sunia Turuva/Patrick Herbert.

Right half

Nathan Cleary faces the highest ranked right half matchup for the season, with Parramatta conceding 68.1 points per game. The recent numbers are less favourable though. The Eels have tightened to 46.7 across the last three rounds and 58.0 across the last five.

Ethan Strange has the strongest recent matchup against the Tigers. Their 63.1 season average has climbed to 75.0 across the last three and 65.6 across the last five. Tom Dearden also draws a strong season matchup against Brisbane at 64.7, although the Broncos have dropped to 48.7 across the last three.

Adam Doueihi faces a Canberra side allowing 62.9 for the season, but their recent numbers have tightened considerably to 52.3 across the last three and 48.4 across the last five. Nicho Hynes also has a difficult matchup against Manly. The Sea Eagles concede 50.9 for the season and 46.3 across the last three, although their five round average is slightly higher at 56.4.

Te Maire Martin faces the third lowest ranked right half matchup against the Bulldogs. They allow just 49.1 for the season, 44.0 across the last three and 44.8 across the last five. Only the Titans sit lower for the season at 47.9, giving Daniel Atkinson the toughest season long matchup. Newcastle have been the most restrictive side recently at 40.0 across the last three and 46.0 across the last five for Daly Cherry-Evans.

Right second row

If Keaon Koloamatangi is named on the right edge, he has the best right second row matchup of Round 21. Melbourne concede a position high 79.7 points per game for the season, with that supported by averages of 77.0 across the last three rounds and 71.2 across the last five. If Koloamatangi is not named there, Thomas Fletcher would likely inherit the matchup.

Heilum Luki also draws a strong and consistent matchup against Brisbane. The Broncos concede 72.3 for the season, 68.0 across the last three and 69.2 across the last five. The Dragons and Eels sit above Brisbane for the season at 75.5 and 74.8 respectively, although both have tightened recently.

Oryn Keeley has the biggest recent form boost against South Sydney. The Rabbitohs sit at only 64.8 for the season but have climbed to a position high 81.7 across the last three rounds. Their five round average is also up at 68.2.

Jacob Preston faces a Warriors side conceding 66.1 for the season. That has dropped slightly to 64.3 across the last three and 58.2 across the last five. Briton Nikora’s matchup against Manly is similar at 64.5 for the season, 60.0 across the last three and 60.6 across the last five.

Haumole Olakau’atu has the most difficult matchup among the relevant options. Cronulla allow 64.6 for the season but have tightened to 53.3 across the last three and 55.2 across the last five. The Roosters remain the lowest ranked right edge matchup overall at 60.5 and have conceded only 55.0 across the last three.

Left wing

Paul Alamoti moves onto the best left wing matchup after Tom Jenkins’ switch to fullback. Parramatta concede a position high 72.1 points per game for the season, with that holding at 72.3 across the last three rounds and 72.4 across the last five.

Lofi Khan-Pereira also draws one of the strongest matchups against the Bulldogs. Canterbury sit 2nd at 71.0 for the season, 67.3 across the last three and 72.6 across the last five. It is one of the most consistent matchups at the position.

The Tigers have become the clear recent team to target. Their 67.5 season average has exploded to 99.3 across the last three and 92.4 across the last five for Jed Stuart. North Queensland have also climbed to 90.6 across the last five for Josiah Karapani, while Brisbane’s five round average has reached 84.4 for Murray Taulagi.

Greg Marzhew faces one of the toughest matchups against the Roosters. They concede only 50.8 for the season and just 30.3 across the last three rounds. Ronaldo Mulitalo has an even lower season matchup against Manly, who allow a position low 42.8 and only 39.0 across the last five.

The Warriors are the other major low point at 44.4 for the season, 43.7 across the last three and 42.6 across the last five. That leaves Jethro Rinakama with one of the most restrictive left wing matchups of the round.

Left centre

Latrell Siegwalt faces the clear best left centre matchup against Melbourne. The Storm concede a position high 80.8 points per game for the season, 77.7 across the last three rounds and 82.4 across the last five. No other team is particularly close across the full set of numbers.

Parramatta rank 2nd at 70.4 for the season for Casey McLean, although their recent averages have dropped slightly to 68.3 across the last three and 66.8 across the last five. The Tigers are the biggest recent risers. Their 64.7 season average has climbed to 78.7 across the last three and 81.8 across the last five for Matt Timoko.

Val Holmes faces a Gold Coast defence allowing 64.5 for the season. The Titans have lowered their averages across the last three, but their five-round average is higher at 60.8. Bradman Best also gets a mixed matchup against the Roosters, who concede 59.4 for the season and 55.3 across the last three but have climbed to 70.6 across the last five.

Jaxon Purdue faces a Brisbane side sitting at 55.7 for the season. Their recent numbers are slightly more favourable at 58.3 across the last three and 62.4 across the last five.

KL Iro has comfortably the toughest matchup at the position. Manly concede a position low 45.8 for the season and have tightened further to 35.7 across the last three and 36.8 across the last five. Cronulla are the next most restrictive recent matchup at 42.7 across the last three and 44.0 across the last five for Josh Feledy.

Left half

Kyle Flanagan faces the standout left half matchup against the Titans. Gold Coast concede a position high 73.1 points per game for the season, with that climbing to 84.3 across the last three rounds and 91.2 across the last five.

Manly are the other major recent team to target. Their 58.6 season average has jumped to 83.0 across the last three and 70.8 across the last five for Braydon Trindall. Parramatta remain a strong matchup for Blaize Talagi at 68.8 for the season, 71.7 across the last three and 69.6 across the last five.

Fletcher Sharpe has the best matchup among the major SuperCoach options. The Roosters concede 54.2 for the season but have climbed to 60.0 across the last three and 61.8 across the last five. Jake Clifford also gets a recent form boost against Brisbane, whose 52.1 season average has risen to 59.3 across the last three and 67.8 across the last five.

Cody Walker faces a Melbourne side sitting at only 51.1 for the season, although their recent averages have climbed to 61.0 across the last three and 59.4 across the last five. Ethan Sanders has a less favourable matchup against the Tigers at 52.8 for the season and 43.0 across the last three.

Jayden Campbell faces a Dragons defence conceding 50.1 for the season, with that dropping to 42.0 across the last three and 41.8 across the last five. Sam Walker has an even tougher assignment against Newcastle. The Knights allow just 45.4 for the season and have tightened to a position low 31.0 across the last three and 31.8 across the last five.

Penrith remain the lowest ranked left half matchup overall at 42.0, while Cronulla have conceded only 38.8 across their last five. Those matchups leave Ronald Volkman and Joey Walsh alongside Walker at the bottom of the position.

Left second row

Samuela Fainu faces the highest ranked left second row matchup against Canberra. The Raiders concede 73.1 points per game for the season and have climbed to 80.0 across the last three rounds and 79.6 across the last five.

Isaiah Papali’i also draws a strong matchup against Parramatta. The Eels sit at 72.5 for the season, although their recent averages have eased to 68.7 across the last three and 68.0 across the last five.

Hamish Stewart faces a Gold Coast defence that has become far more favourable recently. The Titans concede 70.2 for the season but have risen to 82.7 across the last three and 76.8 across the last five. Zac Hosking has a similar recent boost against the Tigers, whose 69.1 season average has climbed to 75.3 across the last three and 81.6 across the last five.

Dylan Lucas gets another strong and consistent matchup against the Roosters. They allow 69.6 for the season, 71.0 across the last three and 74.8 across the last five. Melbourne are the biggest recent risers at 79.3 across the last three and a position high 85.0 across the last five for Euan Aitken.

Xavier Willison faces a Cowboys side conceding 65.4 for the season, 70.0 across the last three and 64.2 across the last five. Ben Trbojevic has a tougher matchup against Cronulla, whose 65.8 season average has dropped to 53.3 across the last three and 55.2 across the last five.

Newcastle remain the lowest ranked matchup overall at 56.8 and have conceded only 51.3 across the last three for Nat Butcher. Brisbane and Penrith are the other major low points at 58.5 and 57.5 respectively.

Hooker

The Tigers are the standout hooker matchup heading into Round 21. They concede a position high 72.4 points per game for the season, with that climbing to 80.0 across the last three rounds and 75.6 across the last five for Tom Starling and Jayden Brailey.

Oliver Pascoe also draws one of the strongest matchups against the Dragons. They allow 70.8 for the season and 73.0 across the last three, although their five round average has dropped to 64.0. North Queensland sit slightly higher at 71.8 for the season for Cory Paix and Ben Hunt, with a five round average of 74.0.

Harry Grant faces a South Sydney side conceding only 63.4 for the season, but the recent numbers are far more favourable. The Rabbitohs have climbed to 75.0 across the last three and 68.0 across the last five.

Blayke Brailey’s matchup against Manly is more settled. The Sea Eagles concede 62.1 for the season, 65.0 across the last three and 60.6 across the last five. It is not among the strongest hooker matchups but there has been no major recent drop either.

Melbourne are the biggest recent risers at the position. Their 61.3 season average has jumped to 77.3 across the last three and a position high 77.8 across the last five for Brandon Smith and Jamie Humphreys.

The Warriors remain the lowest ranked matchup overall at 58.4, although their recent averages have risen to 67.3 across the last three and 67.0 across the last five for Bailey Hayward. Canberra and Penrith are the other main low points at 59.1 and 60.4 for the season.

Don't miss a moment this weekend in the new and improved Ballr NRL Match Centres - now showing live team stats, match timelines and score summary alongside NRL SuperCoach statistics. Enjoy the round!