Round 27 NRL SuperCoach Positional Averages & Matchups

By Alex Christie - @SuperCoachRealm

How it works

Positional points conceded data is a key SuperCoach tool, but raw averages can be misleading. Goalkicking, HIAs, sin bins, injuries and mid-game role changes can all shift where points are scored.

To make this more accurate, every average in this article has been manually tracked and adjusted to better show where teams are conceding points.

This article looks at season averages, while also using the last three-round average (3RA) and last five-round average (5RA) to highlight current trends.

Front Row Forward has been excluded due to middle-forward rotations making it difficult to accurately assign points conceded.

Colour guide

• Blue – elite
• Green – good
• Yellow – okay
• Orange – not good
• Red – terrible

Team Overview

The Dragons have moved into first after recording the equal largest increase of the week, rising by 0.7 to 67.2 points conceded per position. Parramatta dropped by 0.4 to 66.5 and slipped to second, while the Tigers remain third at 65.7. North Queensland stay fourth despite recording the largest decline of the week, falling by 0.9 to 64.9.

The Warriors matched the Dragons’ 0.7 increase, climbing to 58.4 but remaining 14th. The Roosters also rose strongly by 0.5 to 55.8, although they remain the most restrictive team overall.

Manly recorded the second largest drop, falling by 0.8 to 59.3 and sliding from equal 10th to 12th. The Bulldogs moved above them into 11th after rising by 0.2 to 60.1.

The Dragons have also replaced the Tigers as the leading right side matchup, rising to 66.3. The Tigers sit narrowly behind at 66.2, followed by Brisbane at 63.8. Parramatta remain the leading left side matchup despite dropping from 70.4 to 69.4, followed by Gold Coast at 66.4 and Melbourne at 65.0.

The Roosters remain the toughest right side matchup at 52.1, followed by the Dolphins at 54.5 and the Bulldogs at 55.9. Penrith remain the most restrictive team on the left side at 53.1, followed by Manly at 54.5 and Newcastle at 55.8.

Fullback

Hayze Perham has the standout recent matchup against the Bulldogs. Their season average sits at 63.2 but has climbed to 83.0 across three rounds and 80.2 across five.

Dylan Edwards gets another strong matchup against the Tigers at 71.8 across the season, 78.0 across three rounds and 68.4 across five. His upside could be affected if Penrith rest players around him, although he has been named to play.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow faces a consistently favourable Gold Coast defence conceding 69.1 across the season, 76.3 across three rounds and 71.8 across five. Scott Drinkwater also gets a strong Canberra matchup at 68.7 across the season, 74.0 across three and 70.0 across five.

Sua Fa’alogo faces a Sharks side conceding 65.0 across the season, 64.0 across three rounds and 69.0 across five. Those numbers are already positive and Cronulla resting several established players makes the matchup even more appealing than the averages suggest.

Keano Kini’s Dolphins matchup looks only moderate at 60.4 across the season, 52.3 across three rounds and 63.2 across five. The Dolphins’ weakened side significantly improves the matchup beyond those full strength numbers.

Tom Trbojevic faces one of the more deceptive matchups against the Warriors. Their 62.1 season average appears reasonable but has dropped to 36.3 across three rounds and 53.2 across five.

The Roosters remain the toughest fullback matchup at 54.2 across the season, 49.7 across three rounds and 43.4 across five. Their extensive resting means those numbers carry considerably less weight for Jye Gray this week.

Right wing

Adam Pompey has the strongest season matchup against Manly. The Sea Eagles concede a competition-high 67.8 across the season, 65.3 across three rounds and 60.4 across five.

Braidon Burns gets the standout recent matchup among the relevant players against Canberra. The Raiders concede 61.6 across the season but have climbed to 87.0 across three rounds and 67.0 across five.

Brian To’o faces a Tigers defence conceding 63.5 across the season. Their recent averages have dropped to 56.7 across three rounds and 51.2 across five, making the matchup less appealing than the season figure suggests.

Jacob Kiraz gets a moderate Brisbane matchup at 57.6 across the season, 58.0 across three rounds and 62.2 across five. Jamayne Isaako faces a tougher Gold Coast edge conceding 53.5 across the season, 55.0 across three and 58.6 across five.

Campbell Graham’s matchup against the Roosters appears extremely difficult at 47.9 across the season. That assessment changes significantly with James Tedesco, Daly Cherry-Evans and several other Roosters stars being rested. The same applies to Siale Faeamani against a weakened Dolphins side despite their position low season average of 43.0.

Penrith remain restrictive against right wingers at 43.7 across the season, 48.3 across three rounds and 46.0 across five. Any Panthers restings would improve the matchup for Jeral Skelton.

Right centre

Jack Bostock has the strongest season matchup of the position against Gold Coast. The Titans concede 69.0 across the season, 63.0 across three rounds and 65.6 across five.

Luke Garner gets the standout recent matchup against the Tigers. Their 67.6 season average has climbed to 85.3 across three rounds and 82.8 across five. Matt Burton also faces a struggling Brisbane edge conceding 91.3 across three rounds and 80.2 across five.

Simi Sasagi faces a mixed North Queensland matchup. The Cowboys concede 60.0 across the season but have dropped to 44.7 across three rounds and 55.8 across five.

Tom Chester has one of the toughest matchups against Canberra at 50.8 across the season, 46.0 across three rounds and 43.6 across five.

Jack Wighton would ordinarily have the most restrictive season matchup against the Roosters at 48.0. Their heavily weakened side makes that far less concerning than the averages suggest and creates a much better opportunity than the raw data indicates.

Right half

Kyle Flanagan has the strongest season matchup against Parramatta at 68.5. The Eels remain positive recently at 67.0 across three rounds and 63.8 across five.

Jock Madden gets the standout recent matchup against Penrith. The Panthers concede 61.8 across the season but have surged to 103.0 across three rounds and 90.0 across five. Any restings would make an already excellent matchup even stronger.

Lachlan Galvin faces a Brisbane defence conceding 63.6 across the season. Their recent averages have dropped to 54.3 across three rounds and 58.2 across five, leaving it as a mixed rather than elite matchup.

Nathan Cleary gets another deceptive matchup against the Tigers. Their 62.1 season average looks positive but has fallen to 41.7 across three rounds before recovering to 58.6 across five.

Te Maire Martin faces Manly at 56.3 across the season and only 46.0 across three rounds. Their five-round average has risen sharply to 75.8, creating one of the widest splits at the position.

Ben Hunt has the toughest season matchup against the Bulldogs at 46.3, backed by restrictive recent averages of 36.3 across three rounds and 39.0 across five.

Right second row

Jack Williams gets one of the strongest matchups across any position against the Dragons. They concede 75.6 across the season, 91.7 across three rounds and 80.2 across five.

Sione Fainu faces another consistently excellent matchup against Penrith at 75.9 across the season, 76.8 across three rounds and 77.6 across five. The possibility of Penrith resting additional players only strengthens his outlook.

Jacob Preston gets a strong Brisbane matchup at 71.0 across the season and 73.0 across three rounds, although their five-round average is lower at 64.6.

Haumole Olakau’atu faces a steady Warriors edge conceding 68.5 across the season, 70.7 across three rounds and 70.6 across five. Heilum Luki gets a more mixed Canberra matchup at 68.0 across the season, 60.3 across three and 72.2 across five.

Oryn Keeley’s Sharks matchup looks below average at 64.2 across the season, 56.7 across three rounds and 61.0 across five. Cronulla’s weakened side makes it more favourable than those numbers indicate.

David Fifita appears to have the toughest matchup among the relevant players against the Roosters at 62.0 across the season, 63.0 across three rounds and 63.8 across five. Those averages were built against a dramatically stronger side than the one selected this week, making this a major case where the raw matchup should be largely discounted.

Left wing

Tevita Naufahu has the standout matchup among the relevant players against Gold Coast. The Titans concede 64.5 across the season but have climbed to 79.7 across three rounds and 72.2 across five.

Thomas Jenkins faces a positive Tigers matchup at 65.5 across the season, although their recent averages have dropped to 62.7 across three rounds and 58.4 across five.

Ronaldo Mulitalo gets a moderate Melbourne matchup at 64.5 across the season, 56.0 across three rounds and 61.2 across five. Cronulla’s weakened team could also reduce his attacking opportunities despite the reasonable matchup.

Lehi Hopoate faces one of the most deceptive matchups against the Warriors. Their 51.5 season average looks extremely restrictive but has surged to 83.7 across three rounds and 76.8 across five.

Alex Johnston’s Roosters matchup also appears difficult at 51.0 across the season, 64.0 across three rounds and 51.6 across five. Their heavily weakened side makes it significantly better than those averages suggest.

Penrith have the lowest recent averages against left wingers at 38.7 across three rounds and 35.6 across five. They have not currently rested any players, so that remains a genuinely difficult matchup for Junior Tupou.

Left centre

Riley Jones or Michael Gabrael inherits the highest season matchup against Melbourne. The Storm concede 75.7 across the season, although that has dropped to 50.7 across three rounds and 57.6 across five. Cronulla’s weakened team also makes the season figure less convincing.

Valentine Holmes gets the strongest matchup among the major options against Parramatta. The Eels concede 71.4 across the season, 86.7 across three rounds and 75.2 across five.

Deine Mariner faces another major recent boost against the Bulldogs. Their 58.0 season average has climbed to 91.0 across three rounds and 70.0 across five.

Herbie Farnworth gets a steady Gold Coast matchup at 62.8 across the season, 63.3 across three rounds and 60.0 across five.

Latrell Mitchell faces the Roosters at 58.4 across the season, 74.0 across three rounds and 56.0 across five. The Roosters’ extensive resting makes this a far stronger matchup than the full season numbers indicate.

Jaxon Purdue has a difficult Canberra matchup at 55.7 across the season. Their recent averages have dropped further to 41.3 across three rounds and 45.4 across five.

Leka Halasima has the toughest matchup of the position against Manly. The Sea Eagles concede only 47.2 across the season, 45.0 across three rounds and 52.2 across five.

Left half

Jake Averillo gets the strongest season matchup against Gold Coast at 68.7. Their recent averages have dropped to 56.7 across three rounds and 59.6 across five, while the Dolphins’ weakened team may also affect his attacking opportunities.

Jayden Campbell faces a Dolphins defence conceding 57.6 across the season, 44.7 across three rounds and 61.6 across five. Those numbers are mixed but the Dolphins team changes make the matchup more favourable than their averages suggest.

Reece Foley gets a steady South Sydney matchup at 54.9 across the season, 56.7 across three rounds and 58.2 across five.

Cody Walker’s matchup against the Roosters would ordinarily be one of the toughest at only 49.8 across the season, 45.0 across three rounds and 36.8 across five. With the Roosters resting several major players, this is one of the clearest cases where the raw averages should be discounted.

Jarome Luai faces the lowest season average against Penrith at 47.1. Their recent numbers have opened slightly to 57.3 across three rounds and 64.6 across five, but Penrith have not currently rested anyone.

Left second row

John Bateman has the standout matchup against Canberra. The Raiders concede a competition-high 75.6 across the season and have risen further to 86.3 across three rounds and 84.8 across five.

Beau Fermor gets another strong season matchup against the Dolphins at 70.8. Their recent averages have dropped to 62.0 across three rounds and 64.4 across five, but the weakened Dolphins side improves his outlook.

Hamish Stewart faces Parramatta at 69.8 across the season. The Eels have fallen to 66.7 across three rounds and 60.0 across five, leaving it as a positive matchup that is trending in the wrong direction.

Isaiah Papali’i gets a solid Tigers matchup at 67.3 across the season and 72.3 across three rounds. Their five-round average is lower at 61.2.

Penrith remain the toughest left second row matchup at 58.3 across the season, 53.3 across three rounds and 61.6 across five. With no confirmed restings, that remains a difficult assignment for Samuela Fainu.

Hooker

Tallyn Da Silva and Harrison Edwards get the strongest season matchup against the Dragons. They concede 73.0 across the season and remain extremely consistent at 73.3 across three rounds and 72.8 across five.

Harry Grant has the standout recent matchup against Cronulla. The Sharks concede 70.8 across the season but have exploded to 102.0 across three rounds and 84.2 across five. Their weakened team makes an already excellent matchup even stronger.

Owen Pattie faces another favourable matchup against North Queensland at 70.2 across the season, 66.3 across three rounds and 64.4 across five.

Brandon Smith gets a solid Roosters matchup at 65.7 across the season, 69.7 across three rounds and 66.6 across five. Those averages were recorded against a far stronger Roosters side, making his actual matchup one of the better opportunities at the position this week.

The Warriors remain the toughest season matchup at 57.9, although their recent averages have risen to 68.3 across three rounds and 60.4 across five.

Don't miss a moment this weekend in the supercharged Ballr NRL Match Centres - now showing live team stats, match timelines and score summary alongside NRL SuperCoach statistics. Enjoy the round!